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Risk Programming
The historic difficulties in eliciting utility functions and direct maximization of expected utility originally lead to the
development of the mean-variance or of risk programming models. Historically, agricultural economics has focused on mean-variance
models to design a crop portfolio. More recent advances include the use of risk programming models to study optimal leverage and
other sequential decision processes.
Lecture XII: The Farm Portfolio Problem Part I: The Expected Value-Variance Frontier PDF,PowerPoint,Slides
Anderson, Jock R., John L. Dillon, and J. Brian Hardaker. Agricultural Decision Analysis (Ames, Iowa: Iowa State University Press, 1984) Chapter 7: 189-238.
Freund, R. J. "The Introduction of Risk into a Programming Model." Econometrica 24(1956): 253-63.
Moss, Charles B., Allen M. Featherstone, and Timothy G. Baker. "Agricultural Assets in an Efficient Multiperiod Portfolio." Agricultural Finance Review 47(1987): 82-94.
Musser, Wesley N., Harry P. Mapp, Jr., and Peter J. Barry. "Application I: Risk Programming." in Risk Management in Agriculture Edited by Peter J. Barry (Ames Iowa: Iowa State University Press, 1984): 129-147.
Lecture XIII: The Farm Portfolio Problem Part II: MOTAD and Direct Utility Maximization PDF,PowerPoint,Slides
Lecture XIV: The Farm Portfolio Problem Part III: Target MOTAD and Discrete Sequential Stochastic Programming PDF,PowerPoint,Slides
Kramer, Randall A., William T. McSweeny, and Robert W. Stavros. "Soil Conservation with Uncertain Revenues and Input Supplies." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (1983): 694-702.
Misra, Sukant and Stan R. Spurlock. "Incorporating the Impacts of Uncertain Fieldwork Time on Whole-Farm Risk-Return Levels: A Target Motad Approach." Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics (1991): 9-17.
Paris, Quirino. "Revenue and Cost Uncertainty, Generalized Mean-Variance, and the Linear Complementarity Problem." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (1979): 268-75.
Rae, Allan N. "Stochastic Programming, Utility, and Sequential Decision Problems in Farm Management." American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Tauer, Loren W. "Target MOTAD." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (1983): 606-10.
Zimet, David J. and Thomas H. Spreen. "A Target MOTAD Analysis of a Crop and Livestock Farm in Jefferson County, Florida." Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics (1986): 175-85.
Vandeveer, Lonnie R., Kenneth W. Paxton, and David R. Lavergne. "Irrigation and Potential Diversification Benefits in Humid Climates." Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics (1989): 167-74.
Other Materials
Fortran file for the portfolio problem Fortran
SPECS file for portfolio problem SPECS
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